Weak Economic Growth, Capital Scarcity and Capital Optimization with SAP Banking.

Dear,

In recent months, as the world economy reactivated after the COVID-19 shock, we have seen rapid growth in energy prices.

During the industrial era, economic growth has been coupled with energy consumption. If this trend continues, and nothing suggests that it will break, the decrease in energy availability, either due to the depletion of natural sources, or the need to fight against climate change will weaken economic growth.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/26/business/gas-prices-energy-crisis-schwarzman/index.html

As, in addition, excess debt reduces the capital available in the Financial System, we find ourselves in a new structural environment of capital shortage.

Capital is the most important resource of the Financial System, if we are in a new environment of capital scarcity the priority of the Financial System is and it will be capital optimization.

If you do a search in Google of the type "banking capital optimization" you will find many entries explaining the importance of optimizing capital, but there is not much documentation describing the steps of a capital optimization process. I will try to do it briefly in this blog.

1) The first step in a Capital Optimization process is measuring accurately the Capital consumed in every market segment that the bank is exposed to.

This is the main value proposition of the Integrated Financial and Risk Architecture of SAP Bank Analyzer.

Bank Analyzer – Credit Risk module will calculate the Risk Weighted Assets of every contract, every risk exposure of the bank’s portfolio, and consequently the Regulatory Capital consumed.

Once we know the Capital consumed by every Contract/Exposure, we can aggregate the Capital consumed according to the analytical dimensions that we have defined in the Bank Analyzer-Results Data Layer, and consequently we will know the Capital consumed in every market segment in which the bank operates.

Alternatively, the SAP Bank Analyzer Credit Portfolio also gives us the Economic Capital consumed by market segment, and all the complementary parameters to the Capital consumed.

2) The second step in a Capital Optimization process is the efficient assignment of Collaterals to exposures for reducing the Risk Weighted Assets and the Capital consumed.

The assignment of Collaterals to Exposures is not always a static assignment. The 1 to 1 assignment of a Collateral to an exposure is just the trivial case, but it’s usual that several (n) exposures are assigned to several (m) collaterals.

In case (n) exposures are assigned to (m) collaterals there’s an Optimal Distribution of the Collateral portions to the Exposures, which reduces the Risk Weighted Assets, and consequently the Capital consumption. This is the basis of the Dynamic Management of Collaterals that we discussed in a previous blog, and we will analyze again in a future one.

https://sapbank.blogspot.com/2012/09/capital-management-chapter-v-dynamic.html

The Bank Analyzer – Credit Risk Module has strong capabilities for the Optimal Distribution of Collaterals to Exposures in the Level 2 of the Calculation of the Risk Weighted Assets. These capabilities look at the Probabilities of Default and Exposures at Default of the Exposures and the Collateral Values, adjusting efficiently the assignment of Collateral portions to Exposures.

3) The third step of a Capital Optimization process is maximizing the Bank's profit reducing the Capital Consumed. Every market segment has a potential expected profit, and every market segment has a potential Expected Loss, and consequently a potential Capital Consumption.

Optimizing Capital means identifying the market segments with higher Expected Profit weighted by the Expected Capital consumed of the market segment.

This is the most difficult element of a Capital Optimization process, because it requires a double-synchronized simulation, looking for a solution which minimizes the Risk Weighted Assets maximizing the Expected Profit.

This optimization engine is still not available, but the Integrated Financial and Risk Architecture of Bank Analyzer has been designed for having an Integrated and Reconcilable vision of Risk and Accounting (Profit).

The IFRA is the technical foundation for running cycles of simulation that Capital Managers should run for achieving the Optimal Planning of the bank’s portfolio, reducing the RWA and maximizing at the same time the expected Profit.

Finally, the future will require the automatic calculation and simulation of banks investments, for proposing the Optimal Sales and Execution planning of the Bank. I’ve personally worked in some of these models, by adapting the Theory of Constraints to portfolio management.

These simulations require very strong computing capabilities, but this is the value that SAP HANA provides for solving the problem.

Looking forward to reading your opinions.

K. Regards,

Ferran.

www.capitency.com

Join the SAP Banking Group at: https://www.linkedin.com/groups/92860

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Ferran.frances@capitency.com